Future Worlds: The Battle For Capitalism Between the Established Corporatist Financial Chiefs and the Emerging CryptoCloud Techlords.

For most of its existence, the Capitalist system has been pretty unchallenged. Particularly so in recent times, as an empire built on stock markets, central banks, regulatory capture and relative global stability. Safe in the satisfaction that the west has thrived on this model, and the socialist states have pretty much copied and conformed to the globalist trade system.

But now, things are changing. Fast. Rather than the tussles in capitalist systems being between capital and labour markets, or between the financiers in suits and industrial titans, now there is an emerging war that goes beyond the managers vs. workers or bankers vs. manufacturers. Capitalism is getting ready to fight with itself. In effect a civil war between the establishment of financial services backed corporatism, with the tech titans powered by cloud computing and crypto.

It’s got the potential to be one of the most seismic economic, cultural and political shifts in living memory. The sort of thing that was the dark recess of Charlie Brooker devised Black Mirror fantasises is actually the world we are living in. And weirdly, not all that many people are talking about it.

While this will likely come across more as something to worry about, there is the potential for this new world to be a brighter one, on paper. Real world events might suggest the motives, however, come from a darker heart.

Ideally, this makes us tackle the future with a greater sense of imagination to better understand the implications for where it takes us.

The Power of Future Worlds

An exercise I like to run with clients, whether they’re looking at what the future of their industry may be, a customer problem, or the desire to create a new product or venture proposition, is building the narrative of future worlds. These tend to be the scenarios that might seem a bit more of a stretch, perhaps a touch unrealistic and sometimes admittedly a little silly.

There is one emerging however that might be particularly interesting, for not so long ago it could have seemed a work of science fiction dystopia, but now might actually be becoming a bit of a shocking reality.

It leads us to question whether capitalism itself is experiencing its own kind of civil war.

As we explore it, the idea is to identify the implications to us and our organisations, along with the ideas that this world would spark. Even if the world we’re imagining might be deemed unrealistic, we can then take those sparks and see if they might fit the world and the trends we’re living through today.

The Battle for Economic Power: Finance vs. Tech

Once upon a time, finance was the ultimate gatekeeper of capitalism. Banks controlled capital flows, credit creation and the rules of the game. Governments issued the money, banks managed its distribution and corporations played along by the fiscal rules. If you wanted to build an empire, you navigated regulation, secured funding and kept shareholders happy.

Sounds all so easy doesn’t it.

In an analogue world, data was limited, often delayed, and decision making more time consuming as a result. That perhaps means more thought went into decision making, perhaps less decisions needed to be made even, and far less external scrutiny in the form of the daily business editorials was faced. Before everything went online.

At first, when digital technology came along, it seemed as though this was a tool for strengthening the established order. Providing better communication, more real time data, improving the distribution of the collective knowledge base, making it easier to reach customers and generally moving towards a world of better, faster and cheaper.

That was at least, sort of, true. For a bit.

But in not all that short a period of time, the neat financial order has been lined up ready for the shredder. While lots of established businesses did improve with technology, a new generation of titans emerged. They grew bigger than the industrial corporations, and in time, have outgrown even the banks. The likes of Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook … and to a certain extent others such as Tesla & Twitter amassed huge user bases, gobbling up vast amounts of user data, racing to mind boggling valuations.

Today, the new economy isn’t about financial leverage, but about network leverage, where control over digital infrastructure, payments, identity and access is crucial. Consider the reality that business leaders now operate within:

• Big Tech controls transactions … Apple Pay, Stripe, PayPal and Coinbase. Eroding the importance of the bank.

• Big Tech controls work … gig platforms, AI-driven hiring and automated work surveillance. Fewer bosses, management by the algorithm.

• Big Tech controls identity … login with Google or Facebook, Apple ID, biometric authentication and LinkedIn reputations. The digital twin precedes the person.

• Big Tech controls access to markets … app stores, search rankings, algorithmic social media feeds and digital payment rails. A bigger world is right there, assuming you’re prepared to go by the rules of the platform(s).

Historically, big tech has been a bit resistant to the decentralised finance (DeFi) realm, sort of watching on with a cautious interest. But then with Trump 2.0, the walls came crashing down on the old world system and anything is possible, especially if you’re a true believer.

With this, it’s no longer just about the digital transformation of the economy; the ambition just shifted up a gear to redefining who holds the keys to the capitalist system is in its entirety.

From an Old Aristocracy to the New Techno-Oligarchy

The old financial elite, for all their faults, at least played inside a system governed by nation states … which, for the most part played nicely all within the established Pax Americana. While there was (and is) inefficiency, manipulation through lobbying, corruption and a sense that life is not always fair, it was admittedly pretty good setup for most.

Even when the global economy stalled, or crashed, when the bankers got a bit too clever for their own good … they were tethered (some may say loosely) to governments, regulations and oversight.

The new oligarchy is different though, for they’ve built their own new financial system of fintech, crypto and private payments and have succeeding in challenging the regulatory structures of the world’s largest economy. Which is a good start for those already operating without borders through international platforms. Combine a global user base that can be monetised without a central bank, free from government oversight, just code, effectively writing their own governance model and you have something new.

Very recently, this would have been seen as a bit of an academic debate or hypothetical exercise. Perhaps something from a science fiction novel, rather than business textbook. In a way, this is the start of playing a new game that all but a few never actually signed up for.

Welcome to the Age of Frictionless Control

The real genius of this new era? It doesn’t feel like giving up control. Instead, it feels like convenience. The consumer base has been softened up through free social media, alternative investment products, the VC backed subsidy on the likes of ridesharing or delivery platforms.

But now the fees start to creep in, the tiers of service become more significant, the subscriptions pile up. Suddenly it all starts to feel a bit expensive. Are you yearning to rebundle when cable previously gave you before cord cutting and amassing 5, 6, 7 streaming services? Or thinking how the taxi might be cheaper than the Uber? Or feeling the ads have become so overwhelming you might have to pay for the premium tier of Spotify, X or Apple Arcade?

Now how about when the EV withholds a feature, or an over the air upgrade, until you pay more. Or to buy things on Amazon require Primetokens, that can only be purchased with your Amazon Wallet. To see the X feed you customised by choosing who you follow requires you to verify your identity, submit your biometrics and upgrade to Premium … it might even become acceptable as Voter ID sometime. To advertise your product, or even promote your digital content, requires permission to train the AI. Or when the POS system jacks the price for your terminals. Or forces a new coin experiencing volatility on you. Same goes for your work, the AI has been monitoring, productivity has declined, your pay will be adjusted this month, new targets set for next month.

Now if you’re thinking ‘so what’ … this is a bit hyperbolic. You might be right just now. We’re not quite there, yet. And some pieces may happen faster than others. It sort of depends on the politics, but this is a future worlds exercise, it requires a bit of imagination. Ironic though, that it used to be an attack on the centre left, and the WEF globalists that “You'll own nothing and you'll be happy” … it just might be the techno-capitalist right that makes it a reality, where even the products you do own have a software enforced shelf life.

You are not being denied this product, but you need to “upgrade to enjoy the full experience”. You are not being censored, it’s just your content just “didn’t perform well in the algorithm”. You are not being restricted, you were simply “out of compliance” with the terms of service. You were not financially excluded, just your transaction was flagged as "suspicious activity."

The old financial gatekeepers had to use lawyers, regulations and corporate bureaucracy to assert control. The new ones enforce their rule through ever evolving terms of service, AI moderation and automated enforcement. Got a problem with that? Report an issue, our AI will review it. Didn’t solve your issue? Submit a challenge and a human will review in 7-10 business days. Contemporary customer service experiences for pretty much any tech product provide an early indicator here.

It might at first be refreshing to rid ourselves of the old bureaucratic barriers, but are we ready for platform governance by the algorithm? Are we able to understand them? Can their creators even do so?

While the likes of Microsoft, Google and OpenAI go deeper into AI for every industry. Healthcare patient data processing? There’s an AI for that. Submitting an insurance claim? There’s an AI for that. Construction project? There’s an AI for that. It leaves the legacy industries with a crucial question.

As an example of this, it’s even been rumoured that the UK Ministry of Defence was required to pay extra to access the data from the flights taken by their own F-35 combat aircraft from Lockheed Martin. When a supposedly strategic and longstanding ally of the US, is effectively ransomed for its own data, from one of the world’s biggest defence contractors, can others really say they have control over the data and technology infrastructure their company depends on?

The Black Mirror Future of Digital Colonialism

This techno-oligarchy harkens back to a human history where uneven power structures led to systems most are not so proud of today. While traditional colonialism was about controlling land, labour and resources, the new techno-colonialism is all about controlling the digital economy … i.e. the cloud infrastructure, AI-driven decision-making algorithms, digital content and crypto based financial networks for moving money.

The result? A silent form of economic dependency:

• Want to sell online? The likes of Amazon, Google, or Apple control your market access.

• Want to reach customers or broadcast your opinions? Your visibility is determined by algorithmic rankings.

• Want to stay informed? The content you will see is at the mercy of that same algorithm.

• Want to financial sovereignty? Money is crypto, but it’s tied to platform policies and code, while the value is at the mercy of whales.

The extent to which this shift takes place is still to be determined. Will it go the whole hog as the resources and power rests at the hands of a relatively select few, especially dominated in the west by those in Silicon Valley? Or will this be a short term phenomenon that other nation states push back on?

In some ways, we’ve seen this game play out in China over the past decade with the consolidation of money in super apps like WeChat and Alipay. Through these you have your digital ID, can buy anything, get paid, interact with government, consume entertainment, socialise, and get around … all impacted of course, by your digital social credit score. What has been critical in that system, is the state has remained the ultimate power, with finance, and technology, held in check through the central bank digital currency rather than a plethora of crypto options. This centralisation however has a sizeable impact on civil liberties, but it comes from the state, not the private sector.